Airlines face another grim year, with steeper declines, as certain nations fail to accelerate Covid-19 vaccine efforts and monitor virus types, according to an industry group on Wednesday.

According to the International Air Transport Association, the sector is estimated to report net post-tax losses of $47.7 billion (39.7 billion euros) in 2021, up from the $38 billion estimates in December (IATA). IATA increased its outlook for global air passenger traffic this year, saying it will cross 43% of pre-pandemic peaks this year, up from 33% to 38% in February.

“Financial results will be weaker and more variable this year than we predicted in December, leading to problems in monitoring virus variants and delayed vaccination in some countries,” the association said. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said it now expects “much more limited” travel during the critical summer season when people flock to the skies on vacation. Airlines lost more than $126 billion last year because of the Covid-19 crisis, which compelled countries to close borders, shut downtowns, and ban international flights. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that 2.4 billion travelers will travel in 2021, up from 1.8 billion in 2020.

It is also far from pre-pandemic levels of air traffic: nearly 4.5 billion people flew in 2019. Europe does lower than the United States - The picture differs from country to country. North American airlines are doing better than anticipated, with losses of $5 billion rather than $11 billion, owing to the revival of the internal market in the region, according to IATA. The outlook in Europe has deteriorated due to a sluggish vaccine program and less relaxation of international travel restrictions. European airlines are currently expected to lose $22 billion, up from $12 billion previously predicted.

According to industry group ACI Europe, passenger capacity at European airports is scheduled to rebound to pre-pandemic peaks in 2025. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates no increase in international passenger traffic this year, but a better result for airlines serving vast domestic markets such as North America, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific, given the lack of travel restrictions inside borders. This year, airlines are forecast to burn through $81 billion in cash.

Although large airlines have collected enough cash to finance this, smaller airlines have not and may need government assistance or additional funding from banks or stock markets, contributing to the industry's debt load, according to IATA.

“The future for international air travel is highly dependent on vaccine deployment. That is optimistic in some countries, but the rate of deployment is very sluggish in others, especially in developed economies,” according to the industry association.

Independently, United Airlines posted a larger-than-expected $2.4 billion adjusted net loss for the first quarter, as fuel prices increased and the carrier flew fewer flights because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The average cost of gasoline rose almost 30% to $1.74 per gallon in the third quarter relative to the previous three months, while passenger traffic dropped 52% compared to the same time in 2020. COVID-19 has not reported a pandemic by the World Health Organization until towards the end of the first quarter of 2020. United Airlines anticipates another 5% increase in fuel prices in the second quarter.

The carrier forecasted a rebound to profit later this year and stated that it plans to reverse certain resource reductions as more passengers are likely to fly. According to United, capacity could hit 45 % of its 2019 pace in the second quarter of 2019.

According to IBES data from Refinitiv, United's adjusted net loss for the first quarter was around $2.40 billion, contrary to analysts' consensus forecast of a loss of around $2.23 billion. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said in a tweet that the airline now sees "a straightforward route to profitability."

Delta Air, too, blamed increased fuel costs for its quarterly loss, strapping its hopes on profitability later in 2021, when accelerated COVID-19 vaccines are supposed to improve air traffic. Earlier on Monday, United announced the addition of three flights to Croatia, Greece, and Iceland, are the countries that are re-launching for vaccinated passengers.

Virgin Atlantic's chief executive, Shai Weiss, predicted that the pandemic crisis for airlines will be over by October or November of this year.

“We are not out from this scenario; we can only be pleased, or know that we have stepped up another notch when all of our airplanes are in the sky and we have many more folks back into flying and running our flights, which I anticipate to be in October or November of this year,” Weiss said at an online conference on Wednesday.