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In the first three months, Europe's economy slips back into recession

Princess Tarfa

Europe's economy declined by 0.6 % in the first three months of the year as weak vaccine rollouts and prolonged lockdowns slowed a hoped-for rebound, highlighting how the country lags behind other global economies in recovering from the coronavirus pandemic.

The drop in production for the 19 countries that use the euro currency was less than the 1% recession predicted by analysts, but it was still far short of the turnaround occurring in the United States and China, two other global economic pillars.

According to data released on Thursday, the US economy expanded 1.6 % in the first quarter aided by high consumer demand. The US increased by 6.4 % on an annual basis.

In Europe, production drops for the second quarter in a row, bringing the country’s economy into recession after a recovery in growth from July to September of last year. The most recent data encompasses the March 31st quarter, and there is hope that things have changed since then.

France grew unexpectedly by 0.4 % relative to the previous quarter, while Germany, the continent's largest economy, was the biggest negative surprise. Activity there fell by 1.7 % more than predicted, as the manufacturing industry was affected by disruptions in parts deliveries, on top of the impact on utilities and travel from pandemic-related constraints on activity.

The French government expects the COVID-19 forecast in the country to improve next month, as a larger proportion of the population will be immunized. Given the continued elevated number of coronavirus cases and admitted COVID-19 patients, the government is gradually lifting partial lockdowns. President Emmanuel Macron announced on Thursday that exterior terraces of France's cafes and restaurants, and museums, cinemas, theatres, and concert halls, would be able to reopen on May 19 under some parameters.

Fears of a second consecutive missed vacation session have overshadowed the prospects for Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Spain, and Greece, which depend heavily on tourism. Greece has relaxed quarantine prohibitions for EU travelers and will reopen restaurants and cafes for outdoor operation on May 3. Last year, travel receipts fell by 75%. Economists predicted an increase in the upcoming days as vaccines ramped up. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the eurozone will rise by 4.4 % this year.

“Today's GDP data for the first quarter shows a decent stability of the bloc's economy and sends positive signals about the near-term forecast,” said Oxford Economics economist Maddalena Martini. Katerina Grapsa, the proprietor of a decorative goods shop in Athens, was upbeat as she organized her wares, which included candles for Orthodox Easter, which falls on Sunday.

“From here on, we expect that conditions will improve as a result of the vaccines and the provisions,” she added. “It would be much safer if tourism arrives and does not carry us COVID but instead leaves us finances.”

“It is great because last year was unparalleled,” said Andreas Iosifidis, an egg vendor at the Athens produce market. This year, it's drawing to a close a little early, and we're used to being, so we go shopping.”

So far, Europe's unemployment rate has risen steadily to 8.1 % in March, owing to expansive unpaid leave assistance services that assist businesses in keeping jobs on. The unemployment rate in the United States fell to 6.0 % after being quite so much as 14.8 % even at the worst pandemic.

The poor rollout of vaccines, which has extended lockdowns, has become a significant impediment to Europe's recovery. Another factor is that the current administration is providing less economic stimulus to the economy. According to UniCredit bank economists, US President Joe Biden's $1.9 billion relief program, along with investment from previous assistance efforts, would increase cash support of around 11-12 % of annual economic growth this year.

In comparison, when accounting for Europe's larger social safety net, the European fiscal boost amounts to about 6% of GDP.

China was the first to be struck by the pandemic, but it was able to contain it thanks to tight public health policies, and it was the only global economy to develop in 2020. The United States was hard hit by the outbreak, but vaccines are being distributed at a steady rate. According to a preliminary official forecast released on Friday, Spain's economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2021, owing to tightening health controls and an unpredictable cold snap.

The National Statistics Institute (INE) now predicts quick turnaround inactivity, with the Spanish economy, the eurozone's fourth highest, forecast to rise by 6.5 % in 2021 after declining by 10.8 % last year.

The Spanish economy has been hampered by restrictions imposed since October to combat successive waves of the coronavirus. According to INE, growth was stable in the fourth quarter of 2020, followed by a 0.5 % decline in the first three months of 2021. GDP dropped 4.3 % year on year in the first quarter relative to the same time last year.

The economy was further harmed in January and February by new regulations imposed to delay the return of coronavirus cases following Christmas, which primarily impacted the tourism and hospitality industries.

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