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As Fed officials ease inflation worries, world stocks rise and the currency falls

Princess Tarfa

On Friday, global equities soared and the dollar fell after US Federal Reserve policymakers signaled there will be no rush to strengthen monetary policy in the world's largest economy shortly.

The rebound, which extended a late comeback from the previous session, ended a three-day collapse for global markets, which had been fueled by market concerns over increasing US inflation.

The MSCI World Index, a broad measure of global equity markets, was up 0.4 %, recouping some of the week's deficits, which now stand under 3 %.

The STOXX Europe 600 Index was up 0.6 % after overnight advances in Asia, where MSCI's widest index of Asia-Pacific equities outside Japan was up 0.8 % albeit European stocks are still on course with their worst week since February.

US stock futures indicated a stronger open on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 futures up 0.6 % and the Nasdaq futures up 1%.

After a higher-than-expected inflation report earlier in the week rattled markets, Fed official Christopher Waller signaled overnight that prices will not be raised unless policymakers saw either inflation over the goal for an extended period or a scenario of extremely high inflation.

“From 2004 to 2008, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates from 1% to 5.25 %. The large public and private debt rates restrict the Fed's ability to raise interest rates at this moment without causing too much harm to the broader economy,” said Louise Dudley, Global Equities Portfolio Manager at Federated Hermes' international division.

Given these so-called “growth” stocks, which are predicted to deliver larger-than-average returns and are selling at greater prices than their more staid rivals, Dudley believes the moment has come to shift course.

“Stocks with more appealing values and low growth will perform well in a rising interest rate environment.” Even if interest rates do not surprise the upside this year, investors will benefit from concentrating on valuation.”

Weekly equities inflows reached $25.7 billion, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists, with private customers supporting financials, Japanese assets, and many in the materials industry.

Traders will be watching for the publication of new US statistics, including April retail sales, industrial output, and capacity utilization, and a speech by Dallas Federal Reserve President.

In Europe, the European Central Bank is due to release the results of its April session.

The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.6369 %. Government bond rates in the Eurozone remained stable, with German 10-year paper yielding -0.130 %.

The US currency continued to decline against a group of its main counterparts after staying stable in Asia overnight, with the dollar index down 0.2 % at 90.53, taking a respite after recent strong advances.

“Treasury yields are up this week, by the only 5bp, less than in Europe and a rather moderate response to the CPI data,” Societe Generale analyst Kit Juckes wrote.

“Either the recent increase in US inflation is a fad, or the Fed has become dangerously careless. Patience for rising inflation will be put to the test in the coming months.”

Gold rose 0.5 % to $1,834 per ounce, aided by a drop in the value of the dollar.

Oil prices rebounded from their lows, erasing some of the previous session's losses, but gains were limited by a high number of coronavirus cases in important consumer India and the resumption of operations of a major U.S. fuel pipeline network after it was shut down due to a cyber-attack.

Brent crude was up 0.9 % at $67.66 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate crude was up 0.9 % at $64.38 per barrel in the US.

Bitcoin rebounded to trade just above $50,000 on Friday, after dropping to a 2-1/2-month bottom of $45,700 the prior session following a news report of a regulatory inquiry into crypto exchange Binance added to pressure from Tesla Inc chairperson Elon Musk to reconsider his position on adopting the digital currency.

On Friday, copper prices were on track for their first weekly loss since the beginning of April, as mounting inflation worries and a drop in demand from China pressured prices down.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was 1% down at $10,239.50 a ton, after reaching a historic high of $10,747.50 on Monday.

It had fallen 1.7 % in the previous week.

Many analysts predict that the metal used in building and power will grow even higher as the global economy recovers and shifts away from fossil fuels and toward copper-intensive electrification.

“Supply is pretty tight, but demand continues to grow,” said Nitesh Shah, a strategist at WisdomTree. “I believe it will begin to rise again.”

Copper demand in China is expected to stay robust as local governments invest in infrastructure. Concerns that central banks may intervene to curb growing inflation weighed on stock exchanges and commodities this week, as the dollar and bond rates rose.

On Friday, equities were rising and the currency and rates were falling as US Federal Reserve members stated there'd be no immediate tightening of monetary policy.

In April, new bank loans in China decreased further than expected, and money supply growth slumped to a 21-month low, indicating slower growth in the world's largest metals consumer.

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