Several Wall Street professionals believe that the high prices of everything from stocks, Bitcoin, new homes to the booming valuation of newly public companies are strong indicators that the financial system is on the verge of a significant reset.
Jeremy Grantham, a legendary money manager, predicts it will be much worse. The next step will be as serious as the 1929 crash, while Ray Dalio, the head of the world's largest private fund manager Bridgewater Associates, says that while we are not yet at levels just like before the 2000 and 2008-2009 crashes.
Stocks have risen by an average of 80% since the beginning of the pandemic in March, or that bitcoin has nearly five-folded, or Tesla has soared nearly eight times its market cap to become bigger than the next ten global automakers combined should force everyone to ask the bubble question, as should the nearly $20 trillion that global government debt has risen to. Then there's the SPAC phenomenon, a complex tool for bringing private companies public that's triggering multibillion-dollar hysteria.
Google Ngram states, usage of words like “stock bubble” and “stock market bubble” skyrocketed after 2000, peaked in 2005, and then declined slightly, but have remained at levels not seen since 2000.
I predicted a sharp market downturn almost exactly a year ago at this time, and that the advent of COVID-19 was more than a legitimate explanation. The growing divide between those who have prospered in the Zoom economy and those economically harmed by the pandemic has only widened the large gap between capital and labor. In the pandemic year, technology firms have risen four times as much as oil and consumer staples companies. When you compare bankrupt retail chains like Nieman Marcus to online retail superstars like Etsy, Farfetch, and, of course, Amazon, the difference is even sharper.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices gave up their year-to-date gains in the last two weeks. Stocks fell because of very good economic news and expectations: that the pandemic will soon be over. Trillions more in government funding would help the most vulnerable. Consumers will soon unleash an orgy of spending, driving up prices and inflation.
Even if the bubble hunters are right, timing is crucial. You would have missed massive gains if you had listened to Alan Greenspan (then chair of the Federal Reserve) in 1998 when he warned of excessive exuberance and sold your stocks, particularly if you had taken some profits before March of 2000.
The term "bubble" denotes speculative mania. Those Shaquille-infused SPACs may have some of that. The latest Gamestop frenzy was also a sign of froth. Stock markets serve around 4000 firms. The vast majority of which are the cream of capitalism's crop; even the most unstable ones have huge sales growth, even if they are losing money.
Stocks, such as the difficult-to-find Sony Play Station, are only worth what people are willing to pay for them. Most businesses are expanding faster than any national economy. If you are willing to rise, riding the shotgun, with booming companies it makes more sense than investing in government bonds that barely beats inflation.
Average Americans, who are unlikely to be the key component of stock market investment, have been putting money aside. However, the upper-income groups have been stockpiling cash even more. Savings accounts have boosted by $2 trillion, taking the number to more than $5 trillion.
The strange resilience of financial markets in an odd period is unlikely to improve anything shortly. However, for the time being, its better you bet against the sheer number of people claiming that bubbles are about to burst than to bet in markets.
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