The global economy has exceeded its pre-pandemic high, according to data analysis firm IHS Markit, as the recovery advances due to vaccination and the lifting of pandemic-related constraints.
IHS Markit, which performs monthly surveys of companies that are widely recognized by the market as a leading indicator of economic activity, estimates that the global economy would grow by 6.0% this year, the most in over 50 years.
“In the second quarter of 2021, the global economy exceeded the pre-pandemic real GDP high set in the fourth quarter of 2019,” the business stated.
The second quarter concludes towards June end.
The Asia-Pacific region rebounded from pandemic recession at the end of last year as a result of China's economic resiliency.
According to IHS Markit analysts, actual GDP in the United States reached a new high in May. According to the company, Africa and the Middle East would rebound to pre-pandemic GDP levels in the third quarter, which starts in July.
Europe and Latin America will finish rebounding in the fourth quarter of this year.
“As the recovery from the Covid-19 recession is ended, the global economy is entering the sweet spot of the recent expansion,” said Sara Johnson, executive director of global economics at IHS Markit.
“World real GDP growth is increasing with an annual rate of 1.5 % quarter on quarter in the first quarter to rates of 6.0-7.0% for the balance of 2021,” she continued.
IHS Markit's global GDP growth projection for 2021 is consistent with the International Monetary Fund's April forecast.
The IMF emphasized the irregularity of the recovery, predicting that many countries will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2022 or 2023. Both the OECD and the World Bank have cautioned that the recovery would leave certain countries behind, particularly given the shortage of vaccinations in many countries.
IHS Markit recognized that Covid-19 flare-ups continue to pose a danger to economic rebound in areas where vaccination has been sluggish.
It also mentioned recovery restrictions, like interruptions in the supply of specific commodities, such as semiconductors used in electronics and automobiles.
According to its study, “supplier delivery delays extended in May to the highest degree in research history.”
Price increases might be attributed to supply interruptions.
According to IHS Markit, consumer price inflation would climb to 3.3% this year before falling to 2.7% next year as supply circumstances improve.
Investors are increasingly concerned that now the quick rebound in inflation may force central banks to withdraw stimulus assistance and hike interest rates quicker than previously anticipated.
“In the United States, the eurozone, and many other advanced economies with well-anchored inflation assumptions, monetary tightening can be postponed within the short term but not forever,” said IHS Markit's Johnson.
Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) extensive monetary policy, which tries to contain the safe-haven Swiss currency, through its annual economic assessment issued on Monday.
“Directors concurred that monetary policy should continue accommodating, with clear communication to assist anchor inflation expectations, while being aware of possible risks to financial stability,” the IMF stated on its website.
“They agreed that foreign exchange interventions should be confined to moderating extreme appreciation and deflationary pressures, as long as trend appreciation is permitted,” the statement continued.
Last week, the SNB signaled that monetary policy will remain ultra-loose for such foreseeable future, citing rising inflation as no reason to reverse course.
The IMF praised Switzerland's authorities for their "strong, prompt, and multi-pronged policy decision" to the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Recognizing the continued high level of uncertainty, Directors emphasized the importance of maintaining supporting measures until the economy is on a stable footing. They stressed the importance of restructuring the policy mix and encouraging green, digital, and inclusive growth,” according to the report.
While applauding the Swiss banking sector's resilience, IMF officials stressed the importance of constantly monitoring asset quality and risks, especially those associated with residential and commercial real estate.
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