The pressure on countries and companies outside of China to boycott the Winter Olympics in Beijing next year is increasing, but China will not respond idly, according to political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

According to Eurasia Group analysts, “human rights activists and political opponents of China are the pressure on Western governments and businesses to boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics.”

The Games will take place from February 4 to February 20.

In a report released Thursday, they reported that “China would punish countries that boycott the Games with political penalties and economic retaliation, but with far greater intensity in the athletic boycott scenario.”

Campaigners have concentrated on Beijing's targeted persecution of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, which has been branded ‘genocide' by some Western governments. “As the opening ceremony approaches, calls to boycott the 'Genocide Games' will intensify, raising risks for governments, companies, and investors, making them ponder whether they want to boycott or not.”

Last month, the governments of Canada, the UK, and the US released a joint statement blaming China of subjecting the Uyghur people to a "extensive policy of persecution" that included detention camps, forced labor and forced sterilization.

China has dismissed reports of forced labor and other human rights violations in Xinjiang on several occasions. Such statements, the foreign ministry said are "obvious lies" intended to "defame China" and "infuriate China's growth."

Businesses have also been trapped in the middle of the conflict. H&M faced criticism in China in late March after issuing a statement allegedly from last year in which the Swedish retailer expressed "strong concern" about allegations of forced labor in Xinjiang.

The Olympic boycott is justified, according to the Eurasia research, because of China's "systemic discrimination against ethnic minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang, crackdown on political freedoms in Hong Kong and hostility to self-rule in Taiwan."

Three kinds of boycott

Diplomatic boycott:

With a 60% chance of happening, The US will enter in one other big Western nation in a diplomatic boycott of the Games. A diplomatic boycott is described as sending less or no government representatives to the Olympics, as well as other high-profile acts, to deny Beijing the spotlight as host. According to Eurasia, the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia are the most likely players in a diplomatic boycott, with several European countries joining. In Asia, US allies such as Japan, India, and South Korea are unlikely to enter a boycott because they have more complicated political dynamic links with China.

Athletic boycott:

In this case, which has a 30% chance of occurring, one or more Western countries may refuse to send their athletes to the Games, due to domestic political pressure. An economic boycott is known as the exclusion of American spectators, broadcasters, and sponsors from a sporting event.

“Even tougher retaliation from Beijing would be compelled by athletic and economic boycotts, which are harder for viewers to ignore, and may include a diplomatic freeze and severe consumer boycotts against Western products.

Boycott lite:

According to the experts, this is an outlying scenario in which conflicts between the West and China will reduce, and there will be "mild political comments about the Games" but no formal boycott. Heads of state can opt out of the Games, citing scheduling conflicts or other non-political reasons. There would be no declaration of a boycott or presentation of a united Western stance, but there would be no enthusiastic endorsement of Beijing as host.

Blowback from China?

A boycott of the Olympics will “erode any soft power dividend” that Chinese President Xi Jinping hoped to reap from the game, which provides Beijing with “a forum to endorse its global status among domestic spectators and project a positive picture to billions of international viewers around the world,” according to Eurasia analysts.

Beijing would almost certainly fight back against boycotting countries. Beijing's reasonable reaction to a diplomatic boycott would almost certainly be a boycott of Western events, and sanctions against influential boycott supporters.

Consumer companies centered outside of China are trying a delicate balancing act projecting an impression of respect for human rights to customers outside of China, while avoiding being shut out of China's vast market.

A company's reputation in Western markets could suffer if it does not boycott the Games. If it does, however, it runs the risk of being shut out of the Chinese market.

“The possible cost of losing access to the Chinese market will probably outweigh worries about a Western customer backlash,” most companies will likely want to participate in the Olympics.